Joseph Nye on Global Power Shifts, Ted.com
Nov 15, 2010
#dmingml Historian and diplomat, Joseph Nye seeks to provide a 30,000-foot view of the shifts in power between China and the U.S, and how power moves around the globe. Nye recently pioneered the theory of Soft Power. His notion of "smart power" became popular with the use of this phrase by members of the Clinton administration, and more recently the Obama Administration. Nye is currently Professor of International Relations at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, and serves as a Guiding Coalition member for the Project on National Security Reform. The 2008 TRIP survey of 1700 international relations scholars ranked him as the sixth most influential scholar of the past twenty years, and the most influential on American foreign policy. Nye provides a high level view of power in the 21st Century and how there exist two primary types of changes. The first he describes as Power Transition. Literally, how it transfers from one state to another state, from West to East). The second change he calls Power Diffusion. Simply, how power is moving among all states, to non-state actors on the world stage, not merely from one player to another. He debunks the common theory today that there is a key power transition from the U.S. to Asia, and that instead of referring to this phenomena as “The Rise of Asia,” it really should be viewed as the “Recovery or Return of Asia.” For example, in 1800, more than half of the world’s population lived in Asia and produced more than half of its products. In 1900, more than half of the world’s population still lived in Asia, but it only produced about 1/5 of its products. The Industrial Revolution was behind this significant change. Europe and America became the dominant economic center of the world. It is projected that in the 21st Century, there will be a return to Asia producing more than ½ of the world’s products. Nye describes the second change in power as Power Diffusion. This largely centers around the removal of traditional restrictions. For example, computing and communications costs have fallen 1,000-fold between 1970 and the beginning of the 21st Century. While these may appear to be abstract number, if the same change had occurred in relation to automobiles, then you would be able to purchase a car today for around $5. Traditionally, you needed to be wealthy. Today, you need to be connected and have access to networks and the flow of information. There are many more actors today who have this capability and the stage has become crowded. Influence and power have become diffused. Nye claims that that we are not thinking innovatively enough about this diffusion of power and how it can effect better outcomes globally. As he pursues this argument, he proposes that whereas traditional power focused on coercion (“sticks”) and payment (“carrots”), it is time to think more innovatively about getting others to want what you want. He introduces a new term to describe this as Soft Power. By utilizing Soft Power, the world can save a lot of “sticks” and “carrots”. He proposes that the way this is done is to focus our efforts around creating a new narrative. It is not about whose army wins, but whose story wins.
Nye talks about the need to change the narrative away from the rise and fall of countries (the rise of China and the fall of the U.S.) as these metaphors are often very misleading. They are based on projections about the transition of power that find support in simple and inadequate, measures. For example, history is not linear. There are many variables and cycles that interrupt a linear projection of what might be said to be the rise or fall of a nation. The size of an economy is also important. However, although it is projected that China will have a larger economy than the U.S. in 2027, the per capita measure clearly favors the U.S. and overlooks some of the huge development deficiencies that exist in China. Nye also believes it is important not to ignore the fact that there are Asian countries who will want an American insurance policy against the potential dominance of China in Asia as well as other regions of the world.
Referencing the Peloponnesian War (431-404 A.D.) where the rise and power of Athens created fear in Sparta, and where the European state system and centrality of Europe was caused by the rise and power of Germany and the fear it created in Britain, Nye believes that the greatest danger that exists in the world today, is speculating about what a shift in power to the East will do, leading to the creation and generation of fear. To avoid this, he advocates that
Soft Power needs to become more critical than military and economic. Through organizing networks and building collaborative alliances it is important to recognize that power need not be a zero sum game. We need to get away from “I win, you lose.” We need to mix
Soft Power with Hard Power (economic, military) to create
Smart Power. To achieve this, Nye states that we must develop a new narrative for Smart Power where in collaboration, countries can begin to produce global, public goods or win/win outcomes. This requires that countries define their interests first and become transparent with their desired outcomes. This was a fascinating argument presented by Joseph Nye about global power shifts. In particular, the concept that stood out for me was the notion that a new narrative or story about how power should be defined needs to be created and intentionally exercised by the leaders of nations. As Nye stated, it is not so much about whose army wins, but whose story wins. Although this may sound a little naïve or unrealistic, I do think Nye could have taken this one step further by speaking not only to changing the narrative, but how that narrative could be developed, reinforced and communicated widely with the use of today’s computing and communications capabilities.
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